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There will be war, or, how to prevent it

Posted by Harry Seldon on February 27, 2009

For some time, I have wanted to post about “crises are natural preludes to wars”. I am definitely not that qualified to say that, so I am glad these guys (LEAP experts) are. They predicted quite well the crisis, they invented the word “global systemic crisis” back in 2006. What they say is very scary. Even if they do their best not to mention “war”, they speak about “global geopolitical dislocation”, “tragic consequences” and say “the world will look more like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007”. However, as I am an optimistic guy, let me remind you that I have good news about the crisis and that controls and that genius can save us.

In case I am not clear about why controls can save the world, here is the short version: uncontrolled systems, like natural systems are almost always unstable and chaotical. Chaotical systems (1) are ‘worse’ than unstable because they look like they are stable, like they are converging to a limit but actually at about any time they can diverge. So nothing is worse than “no control”. At worst a bad control leaves us in an uncontrolled situation.
Therefore, the world needs more control at all scales from “personnal self-control” to “World control” going through cities, regions, states, or countries control systems. In case you wonder, I am really not speaking of some kind of a Big Brother, fascist, centralized control system. I am more speaking of a democratic, distributed (decentralized) control system. If you are a computer scientist think about the Git Distributed Version Control System, (intro to git here, graphical explanation here). I will explain more in details what I am thinking about in a later post. Remember my point for today. There is no real choice it is either control or war. War, being the expression of the natural divergence of an uncontrolled human system; WWIII would be a ‘game over’ for the world. However, once you choose control, there are plenty of possibilities, stay tuned.

For French readers, I learnt about that article from the LEAP reading this on yahoo news and that article is itself directly taken from Le Monde.

(1) Climate or Volcanoes are good examples of chaotical systems. For a long time they look quiet, and all of a sudden they explode. So yes, they should be controlled. CO2 control is an attempt for climate. Not sure it will work, not sure it is really useful but it is definitely worth trying it. I have a humoristic post about a volcano control system in preparation.

PS If you are interested in controls questions, please join the control theory group on Facebook.
PPS If you wonder what ThinkoSphere is doing in all that, I will speak about it in a later post. But you are definitely right, it is related.

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Yes, he can save the world !

Posted by Harry Seldon on February 23, 2009

He is from a minority. He is American, lives in the US but has a dual culture. He studied in the best universities. He is one of the smartest guys on Earth. He had many awards for his outstanding work along his long and brilliant career. He has always fought received ideas. He is not afraid of complexity but knows to recognize simplicity in the middle of intricated systems that most people consider as infinitely complex. He is not afraid of telling people when they are wrong. He is not afraid of telling them what to do. He does not hesitate to fight alone against the majority but definitely prefers to be with the majority. If listened to earlier, many casualties would have been avoided. He wants to change the world and he has a plan.
No, I am not speaking about Barack Obama. Let me continue. He is Franco-American. He studied aeronautics. He deserves a Nobel prize in all categories: economy, physics, medecine (biology), chemistry, and even litterature and peace, because his work helped describing and understanding the geometry of nature. His work can indeed be applied to stock market, natural borders, lungs description, fluid mechanics, animal population evolution, clouds. He wrote many inspiring books. If more listened to the world would be way more peaceful because better understood and less submitted to crisis.
Yes, I am speaking about Benoit Mandelbrot and the good news is: his work on finance is slowly being recognized by the media and by economists.

Listen to Mandelbrot and global warming, crisis and wars will just be bad memories. OK I am exaggerating, but I am not sure how much ;-).

PS If you know which conferences Mandelbrot is going to attend this year, please let me know in the comments because he is definitely the celebrity I would love most to meet.
mandelbrot antenna

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